1. SEPTEMBER JOBS REPORT • The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that the US added 254k jobs in September, drastically defying expectations following a summer of worsening labor market conditions. • The consensus forecast from economists heading into the data...

1. FED INTEREST RATE CUT • The Federal Reserve cut its primary policy interest rate by 50 basis points (bps) in September to a target range of 4.75%-5%, the first interest rate reduction since policymakers began their fight against post-pandemic inflation in March...

1. CPI INFLATION • According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased 0.2% month-over-month (MoM) in August, repeating July’s pace and in line with the consensus forecasts that led up to the data release. • The annual CPI...

1. FED POISED TO PIVOT • The FOMC is poised to cut interest rates in September for the first time in over two and a half years, evidenced by recent statements from Fed Chair Jerome Powell and a 100% consensus forecast that has formed in futures markets. • During a...

1. INFLATION • According to the BLS, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) reaccelerated on a monthly basis in July but continued to decelerate annually. Prices rose by 0.2% between June and July, following a decline of 0.1% the previous month. Prices decelerated to 2.9%...

1. GDP • According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the US economy expanded at an annualized rate of 2.8% in the second quarter, up from 1.4% in the first quarter and above the consensus forecasts of 2%. • Consumer spending accelerated from the first quarter,...