1. CPI INFLATION
• The Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell to 3.2% year-over-year in October, 50 basis points below the
September reading, and follows two consecutive increases in annual CPI.
• Monthly CPI was flat, marking the first time the economy has experienced no month-over-month inflation
since July 2022. Further, the annual increase in CPI in October was its lowest for the CPI since March 2021.
• Energy prices dropped sharply in October; however, the declines were offset by the rise in shelter costs.
Still, shelter costs, which have been the key culprit behind upward price pressure in recent months,
increased by just 0.3% monthly in October, 30 basis points below September’s reading.
• Markets responded positively to the news after the annual reading came in 10 basis points below
economists’ consensus forecast for October. The Dow jumped 1.5% on the day of the release as investors
renewed hopes that falling pressures could boost consumer confidence and provide room for the Fed to
halt its interest rate tightening cycle.
2. THANKSGIVING INFLATION
• As Americans sit down to this year’s Thanksgiving feast, the inflation on their plates has — thankfully —
improved since last year.
• According to the BLS Consumer Price Index, the bulk of this year’s inflation is stuffed into the turkey,
which has seen average prices rise by 7.2% in the past year. Meanwhile, Ham — the proverbial silver
medalist of the Thanksgiving feast — is up by only 0.5% year-over-year.
• Fresh fruits and vegetables are serving up a healthy side of savings, with average prices down 0.1% from
last year. Staples such as eggs (-22.2%), butter (-3.7%), and milk (-1.6%) are also seeing prices fall from a
year earlier.
• Looking ahead to Black Friday, while conclusive data are unavailable from the BLS, the Analysts at
Chandan Economics forecast that negative rates of inflation are highly probabilistic for the New York
Jets offense as well.
