1. Q3 GDP & CONSUMER SPENDING REVISED UP
• The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported an upward revision to Real GDP in the third quarter of 2022,
mainly reflecting a revised total in U.S. consumer spending. The latest estimate shows a 3.2% annualized
increase in Real GDP during Q3 2022, revised up from the previous estimate of 2.9% and a reversal from
the 0.6% decline seen in Q2.
• Upward revisions occurred in consumer spending, nonresidential fixed investment, and state and local
government spending. These revisions were partially offset by downward revisions seen in private
inventory investment and exports.
• Both real incomes and spending are on the rise to close 2022. In November, personal income increased
by $80.1 billion, or 0.4% annually, while personal consumption expenditures increased by $19.8 billion, or
0.1% annually.
• The spending-driven upward revision to growth is notable, given the ongoing analysis of the Federal
Reserve’s interest rate policy, its impact on investment, and the debate around the potential for a U.S.
recession. Outside of housing and other rate-sensitive products, consumers have largely shaken off the
Fed’s rate hikes in their spending decisions. Historically, it is atypical for an economy to enter a recession
while real incomes and spending are accelerating.
2. CRE DEBT CLIMBS
• According to a recent breakdown by Trepp, outstanding Commercial Real Estate debt increased by
$474.2 billion during Q3 2022 to $5.52 trillion, a 9.3% increase year-over-year.
• CMBS trusts and other securitization vehicles saw the largest relative increase through Q3 2022, climbing
by 15.58% or $106.1 billion to a total of $786.9 billion outstanding. Banks and thrifts, which hold the largest
volume of commercial mortgage debt, saw holdings rise by 10.4% year-over-year.
• Trepp estimates that a total of $447.42 billion of commercial mortgages will come due in 2023, with the
bulk of them held by banks and thrifts.
• Multifamily loans outstanding rose by $170.8 billion last quarter, also a 9.3% increase year-over-year.
Notably, the GSEs Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac only accounted for $106.1 billion. According to the
analysis, the remainder of loan growth results from a rise in loans held by banks, thrifts, and life insurance
companies alongside an increase in securitization vehicles’ inventory.
