1. Q1 2023 GDP
• The US economy grew at an annualized rate of 1.1% during the first quarter of this year, slowing significantly
from the Q4 2022 annualized rate of 2.6% and registering well below the Dow Jones consensus forecast
of 2.0%.
• Growth in Q1 primarily reflected an increase in consumer spending partially offset by a decrease in private
inventory investment.
• The increase in consumer spending was aided by increases in both goods and services spending. Spending
on motor vehicles and parts led to goods consumption, while an increase in health care and food services
spending carried much of the rise in services.
• Government spending increased during Q1. On the federal level, the increase primarily reflected nondefense expenditures, while on the state and local level reflected a rise in compensation for government
employees.
• A pullback in Wholesale Trade growth led to a decrease in private inventory investment, specifically
within machinery, equipment, and supplies. Manufacturing also saw a retreat.
• A decline in residential fixed investment was led by a decrease in new single-family home construction.
2. NMHC QUARTERLY SURVEY OF APARTMENT CONDITIONS
• As of the NMHC’s April 2023 survey, apartment investors across the US continue to report a challenging
financing environment, with the availability of both debt and equity continuing to shrink.
• A majority (51%) of apartment operators report that conditions in their local markets are looser (higher
vacancies, less rent growth) today than three months earlier. 34% of operators said conditions were
unchanged compared to three months again, while just 14% reported a tightening.
• While the majority of investors (53%) report that now is a worse time for borrowers than three months
ago, this share has started to drop off over the past two quarters. When asked in October 2022, a supermajority (90%) felt that borrowing conditions had worsened, and 0% reported an improvement. Fast
forward to the April 2023 survey, this declining share has dropped by 37%, while 12% now say financing
conditions are improving.
• Notably, while a majority of investors (64%) anticipate a continued bumpy landing thanks to the Federal
Reserve’s monetary tightening cycle, they do not anticipate a recession. Just 21% of respondents expect
a hard landing with a recession.
