Economic Update

SVN Miller Economic Update

1. GDP

  • Real GDP declined by an annualized 0.9% in Q2 2022, according to the advanced estimate released by
    the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). The decline follows a 1.6% annualized contraction in Q1, placing
    the US economy in a technical recession, though one has not yet been officially declared by the National
    Bureau of Economic Research (NBER).
  • Private inventory investment, residential fixed investment, federal government spending, state and local
    government spending, and nonresidential fixed investment declined during the quarter, while exports
    and consumption increased. Imports also increased, contributing negatively to growth.
  • Retail trade registered the most significant decrease within private inventory investment, which
    mainly reflected a contraction among general merchandising stores and vehicle dealerships. A decline
    in brokers’ commissions led to a reduction in residential fixed investment. Meanwhile, a drop in nondefense spending was partially offset by a rise in defense spending, but not enough to avoid a decline
    in total federal government expenditures.
  • Decreased investment in structures led to declines in both nonresidential fixed investment and state and
    local government expenditures. A rise in service expenditures led imports. Meanwhile, the increase in
    exports reflected an increase in industrial supplies, materials, and travel. Consumption was powered by
    a rise in food services and health care expenditures

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